Addressing the Issues of Uncertainties in Change Point Detection of Hydrological Time Series in Runoff Alteration Studies

Rupak Kumar Paul, SUBRATA MONDAL

Abstract


Relying solely on step change techniques can lead to the wrong selection of the change point which makes uncertainty. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the influence of change point selection on annual runoff and also suggested how to select a real change point in consideration of step change techniques and field proofs. That is why a case study was conducted on the South Koel River Basin, Eastern India and subsequently, runoff data were obtained from the Ministry of Jal Shakti, Govt. of India during 1981-2018. The results of the Shapiro-Wilk test suggested that the annual runoff has a normal distribution. Here, three robust step-change techniques were applied namely Buishand U Test, Buishand Range Test, and Standard Normal Homogeneity Test. The first two tests detected a change point in the year 2001 while the latter one was detected in the year 2008. After the change points of 2001 and 2008, runoff decreased by 35.31% and 46.82% respectively from their respective reference periods. However, the dissimilarity in the results of step change techniques leads to the careful consideration of field proofs, even if the results of these tests were consistent. Field proofs indicated that a substantial portion of water has transferred from the South Koel River to the Subarnrekha River after the year 2008. This information proved that the step change occurred in the runoff after the year 2008. The findings of the study could aid the researchers in enhancing the reliability and acceptability of their runoff alteration studies.


Keywords


Runoff Change; Impact Assessment; Ground Proofs; Real Change Point

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